China All Sector Business Confidence at 10-year High

July SMI data suggests strong growth emerging in the Services Sector

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: July 24, 2025

Business Confidence in the Chinese economy rose to a decadal high in July. This is in stark contrast to the plunging Confidence levels registered by the World Economics USA Sales Managers Survey.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

The Business Confidence Index is particularly important as the question asked of panel members relates to their confidence in the future course of business activity, not its present level. Sales Managers, because of the very nature of their work tend to be more attuned to the future. They are in general very aware of levels of contracts they expect to be signed shortly , as well as current order books, with the potential personal impact of likely sales levels on bonuses linked to sales. Economists often refer to levels of Business Confidence as "animal spirits", reflecting the great importance of Confidence on future levels of investment and employment.

The overall message regarding the Chinese economy must remain one of cautious optimism, as Manufacturing data remains subdued. However, both the overall Sales Managers Manufacturing Index and the important Manufacturing Jobs Index are registering growth (Index readings of over 50, the level distinguishing economic growth from recession) albeit of a modest nature. Growth looks likely to be led by the Services sector, judging by the fast rising Business Confidence Index, probably reflecting the progress of the Chinese economy towards a more western style balance between the Manufacturing and Services sectors.

The big question remains: can the world's great growth engine of the past three decades move back towards its previously central role in sponsoring global economic expansion. Or will tariff wars with the USA keep China's growth and its influence on the world economy more restricted than has been the case for many years. On balance recent Sales Managers Survey data (particularly the forward looking Confidence data) suggests that the Chinese economy is moving back towards providing a leading role in expanding global economic activity.

Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.